Strange Game - Important win

A Much Needed Win!

 

                  Stanford got a much needed win on Thursday night against one of the few ACC teams currently below the CARD in the conference standings. It was a game where a win was good but a loss would have been devastating. In one of the strangest games played at Maples in recent years, the two teams combined for 33 points in the entire first half, going 0 for 28 on three-point attempts. Stanford shot 22.8% (8/35) and Pitt hit 23.3% (7/30) with Stanford "surging" to a five-point on Elena Bosgana's driving layup as time expired. As ugly as the first half was, this was not a totally unfamiliar result for Pitt.  Earlier this season the Panthers scored only 18 points in the first half against SMU before roaring back in the second half to score 56 points in a 48-point comeback win. Pitt has scored less than 20 points in the first half multiple times this season and has rarely scored more than 60 points in a game.  

 

                  The second half looked more a "normal" game.  Both teams had shooting percentages in the mid-forty percent range and Stanford hit over 38% (5/13) on three-point shots. Pitt continued to miss all of its three-point attempts. Interestingly, while both teams were perfect from the free throw line for the first three quarters, Pitt players missed two of their six free throws in the 4th quarter while Stanford remained perfect from the line, hitting 12 of 12 for a team record perfect on 15 out of 15 free throws for the full game. That 4th quarter perfection included two free throws by Shay Ijiwoye. Her jubilant smile and bounce after hitting the second (as well as the bench reaction) showed how hard Shay has worked to improve her free throw shooting.

 

                  This was a game in which all nine of the Stanford players with time on the floor made positive contributions.  Some of those contributions barely showed on the scoreboard -- for example Mary Ashely Stevenson and Brooke Demetre only scored two points each (although Booke also had a steal and three blocks) -- but their physical defense against Khadija Faye, Pitts’ 6'4" center, was critical to Stanford's win. Freshman Kennedy Umeh also played valuable minutes against Faye. Kennedy also scored four points on perfect shooting (1/1 from the floor and 2/2 at the line). Faye was clearly frustrated by being pushed out of her preferred deep positioning in the paint.

 

                  Despite the game's low score, four Cardinal players were in double digits for the game. Nunu Agara played her usual tough defense and was clearly a focus of the Pitt defense, starting with an early play were Nunu's lip was split in a collision with a Pitt player. Nunu's 10 points came mostly from free throws. Nunu shot and made half of Stanford's 12 free throws. Chloe Clardy is beginning to look like Stanford's current version of an Ironman.  She played for full 40 minutes.  In Stanford's last three games, Chloe has been on the floor for all but three minutes of play! Some of this reflects the limited availability of other guards, but it also reflects Clardy’s continued improvement. Her 14 points were tied with Senior Elena Bosgana for Stanford's game high. Another big bright spot for the CARD was Courtney Ogden's continued emergence as a go-to player.  Courtney scored 10 points and grabbed 9 rebounds, barely missing her first career double-double.  

 

Questions:

1. How will Stanford respond to facing North Carolina's starting guard Indya Nivar?

                  Indya played her freshman season at Stanford, departing in Stanford's first multiple player transfer portal loss.  Will the coaching staff's familiarity with Nivar be of use?  How will the crowd respond to her?

 

2.  Will the improving Stanford squad be able to get its first breakthrough win against a Top 25 team?  

                  Once again Stanford will have a national TV audience.  Will the CARD be able to make a better showing at home against North Carollina than they did against Duke on the road?

This team has grit!

Running Out of Time

 

            That phrase describes both the CARD's recent game against CAL and Stanford's current season. Against CAL this still developing team showed tenacity and aggressiveness as the CARD battled back from 19 down to within two points (twice) finally losing by three.  The aggressiveness was defined by a ferocious full-court-trapping-press that forced CAL into multiple turnovers and rushed shots.  

 

                  The Cardinal scoring was led by sophomore guard Chloe Clardy's 22 points on 7-13 from the floor and 8-11 at the free throw line.  Chloe drove to the basket multiple times for two points or two free throws. A perfect response to a defense that focused on stopping the three-point shot.  Stanford's sparkplug freshman guard Shay Ijiwoye had three steals and an overall excellent game marked by speed and quickness.  Sophomore guard Courtney Ogden had two steals, three assists, and was perfect in her drives to the basket. Stanford is starting to benefit from some of Courtney's considerable talent! Nunu Agara was, as usual, Stanford's leading rebounder and scored 19 points including two clutch three-pointers to keep Stanford tantalizingly close as the fourth quarter wound down. The Cardinal actually won the fourth quarter by 10 but it wasn't quite enough to overcome a 61-42 deficit from late in the third quarter.

 

                  To some extent CAL's victory was sealed when the officials chose to call a flagrant foul on Shay Ijiwoye.  In the battle for the rebound after a missed free throw, both 5'6" Shay and CAL's 5'11" Jada Noble hit the floor.  Noble had to be helped off the floor, the officials conferenced and called the intentional foul on Shay.  Not only was that Ijiwoye's fifth foul, but also it gave CAL, up by only two points, two free throws plus the ball.  Soon CAL was back up by seven points. Still the Cardinal didn't give up, pulling back to within two points on two Nunu Agara three-pointers.  In the closing seconds with CAL up by four points, Nunu was fouled.  She hit the first free throw, pulling the CARD within three and intentionally missed the second with Chloe Clardy pulling down the rebound with 4 seconds left in the game.  Unfortunately, Stanford was not able to get a shot off before time expired.  

 

Changing of the Guard?

 

                  Although Stanford started the game with the "midseason starting five" of senior Brooke Demetre, senior Elena Bosgana, sophomore Nunu Agara, sophomore Chloe Clardy, and freshman Shay Ijiwoye, over 80% of the minutes were played by freshmen and sophomores.  Bosgana and junior transfer Tess Heal were the only upper classwomen to play double digit minutes and both played less than 20 minutes.  Chloe, Nunu, Shay, Courtney, and Mary Ashely Stevenson were in for more than 20 minutes.  Some of this was about match ups, but one wonders if this also reflects increased dependence on the talented sophomore class....

 

                  One thing is clear -- the team is playing better than it did at the start of the season.  That isn't surprising as the 2024-25 iteration of the Cardinal began the season with only one player who had averaged more than 30 minutes a game in the 23-24 season, Talana Lepolo (30.5).  Seniors Brooke Demetre and Elena Bosgana had averaged 20.9 and 18 minutes per game respectively. Nunu Agara's 13 minutes per game average was the next highest.  That's not a lot of experience -- and Talana has only played in five of Stanford's 19 games this season.  She has not dressed since failing to score or record an assist in her 22 minutes against Indiana back in November.  Transfers Tess Heal and Mary Ashley Stevenson had considerable playing time at their respective schools, more than any of Stanford's returning players except Lepolo, but they are learning a new system. Teams that have started strong with rosters made up largely of transfer portal players were full of transfer players with 30+ minute per game experience -- new teams but not lacking in game experience.  That isn't where Stanford started.  Those relatively inexperienced players are more seasoned now and it shows.

 

                  The big question is does the Stanford team have enough time to play itself back into relevance -- meaning back into the NCAA Tournament bracket?  They are currently 44th in the NET with a 10-9 record, 2-8 in the ACC, and have only one win against a "Quad -1" (highly regarded) team.  There are ten games remaining on Stanford's regular season schedule, including three with nationally ranked teams.  The good and bad news about that is that a win against one or more of those ranked teams would almost certainly earn Stanford an NCAA berth, the bad news is that a 17-12 record (which would require beating every team on the schedule NOT currently nationally ranked) probably isn't good enough to get an NCAA invitation.  Stanford can still catch fire -- the fire the team showed in the last 16 minutes of the CAL game -- but time is running out.

 

 

The New World of College Basketball

 

                  It is hard not to be a bit nostalgic for the "good ol' days" when there was no transfer portal which meant coaches could plan on developing players from rough talent into polished stars and fans could invest emotionally in players they would watch for the next four years. While it seems right that players can profit from the use of their name, image, and likeness -- being rewarded for the fame they through their play -- something feels off about the rise of "collectives" allowed to directly recruit players to their schools with offers of hundreds of thousands of dollars. Unlike professional leagues where there are rules about when and how players can move, the new world of college sports has no "tampering" rules and miniscule limits on what players are being compensated for beyond simply putting on the team's jersey.  

 

                  Stanford, which has always prided itself on "doing it right" and having student athletes who are truly students, was slow to embrace this new world.  There is now a collective -- Lifetime Cardinal -- and the school is working on making it easier to accommodate athletes through the transfer portal.  But the school is still trying to find ways to maintain both the academic side of student athlete and Stanford's status as an elite athletic institution.  The process is on-going.  So far Stanford's sophomore class hasn't lost any players to the portal and next year's incoming freshman class is loaded with top talent.  Let's hope that Stanford is able to adjust to the new day -- and that includes fans adjusting to the need to support Lifetime Cardinal.

 

Missing the PAC-12 and even the PAC-12 Network

                  In addition to the loss of familiar foes and more convenient travel, the smaller size (twelve) of the PAC-12 compared to the 18 team ACC meant the teams mostly played a true round-robin format with a chance to see teams both at home and on the road and a conference tournament that included all the teams.  With the ACC teams only play one rival (usually a traditional rival -- for Stanford that's CAL) on a home and home and the conference tournament only includes the top 15 teams.  There were never more than six PAC-12 games on any day, making it easier to schedule a greater percentage of the games on TV. With the ACC network, most of Stanford's games end up with streaming only if available at all.  That means watching on a computer and no recording.  For this column, it had been my habit to watch games more than once -- mostly not possible now.  That and the limited involvement of Stanford in the national conversation mean there is less opportunity for the analysis this column has attempted to provide.  For example, the only team statistic where Stanford is in the top fifty nationally is Stanford's third place in three-point percentage. The only Stanford player currently in the top 50 on any individual stat is Nunu Agara who is tied for 40th in double-doubles. 

Questions:

1. Will the new look team turn the corner in the win column?

Stanford outplayed CAL over the last 15 minutes of their game. Will they continue to show that same fire?

2. Will players start driving to the basket more consistently?

When Stanford players drive strongly to the basket it opens up the three point line.  Chloe, Shay, and Courtney all have shown they can get there.  Will they keep it up?  That also takes a bit of the load off of Nunu. 

Some bright spots in a loss

Maples Magic Failed!

 

                  For the first 15 plus minutes of the game it looked like Maples Magic might hold.  Stanford jumped out to a lead and held on to it through the first quarter and more than halfway through the second quarter.  Unfortunately, at the 3:58 mark in the quarter two, NC State took the lead and never let go.  The Wolfpack was up by eight with the ball as the first half ended.  But Elena Bosgana had a nifty steal at halfcourt, hitting a layup as time expired to pull the CARD within six.

 

                  NC State came out of halftime on fire, doubling their first half 34 points in the third quarter.  As Coach Paye exhorted her team to show no quit, the CARD battled back in the fourth quarter, but Stanford's +11 in the 4th wasn't enough to overcome NC State's +19 in the thrid. The loss was Stanford's fourth loss to a ranked team and their seventh overall.  The Cardinal's current 9-7 record has pundits predicting that Stanford will fail to make the NCAA tournament for the first time since Tara's first season on the Farm.  

 

                  There were some encouraging items in the game.  Nunu Agara recorded yet another double-double, her sixth of the year, scoring 14 points to go with 10 rebounds.  Fellow sophomore Chloe Clardy, making her third straight start, was the game's high scorer with 17, the same as NC State's Saniya Rivers.  Senior Elena Bosgana had another solid game with 14 points, six rebounds, four assists, and two steals.  Finally, high energy freshman Shay Ijiwoye continued to show improvement.  

 

                  Of course, the strong performances from Stanford's sophomores, especially Nunu has already attracted the attention of boosters from other schools.  They are contacting her with offers of NIL money if she will transfer.  Although coaches are not allowed to contact players until they enter the portal, nothing in the current rules prevents "Collectives" from reaching out with big money offers.  Hopefully Lifetime Cardinal can come up with the funds to help Nunu continue her Stanford career and education.  It's hard to imagine that the portal will have any athletes with Agara's skills who can meet Stanford's admission requirements.  

 

Questions:

1. Will Stanford fans answer the call and contribute the money needed to "bring 'em back" next year?

It is estimated that Stanford fans will need to raise over 1.5 million dollars to keep our current team and current recruits.  Will we do it?

 

2.  Will the team improve enough to make the tournament?

It's going to take at least 20 wins, the CARD have 9...will Stanford get there?

 

Maples Magic

First ACC Win

 

            Fans who missed Stanford's ACC Home Opener against Florida State University missed an encouraging and exciting game that ended with Stanford's first ACC victory!  The 8-6 Cardinal returned from a road trip that was both disappointing and encouraging -- with close losses to SMU and Clemson.  Before that trip this column wondered if the young Cardinal team had grown up enough to be truly competitive this year.  Against FSU the answer was a resounding yes.  

 

                  The revised starting line-up with Chloe Clardy and Shay Ijiwoye replacing Tess Heal and Jzaniya Harriel led a high energy team capable of competing!  This line-up was first used in Stanford's overtime loss to Clemson, a game not available on TV (due to the CW replacing it with a religious broadcast and a paid eyecare infomercial). The change was foreshadowed by the energy surge those players provided in the closing quarter of the SMU game -- turning a game that had been almost painful to watch into a winnable game.

 

                  On paper FSU looked like a sure winner.  They were 13-2 and undefeated in the ACC and ranked 22nd in the NET. But Stanford led from just before the 6-minute mark when the CARD went up by one on the first of Brooke Demetre's five three-pointers. They CARD held national scoring leader and national player-of-the-year candidate Ta'Niya Latson under her scoring average.  Stanford senior Demetre (24 pts on 9/15) matched Latson's offensive output (24 pts on 8-22) on much more efficient shooting. Overall, Stanford's offense was more efficient than FSU's. The CARD shot over 50% from the floor and 40% from three while holding FSU below 39% overall and below 29% from three.

                  Demetre's  24-point mark was a career high for her. She was joined in double figures by Elena Bosgana (21 pts), Nunu Agara (17 pts) and Tess Heal (14 pts).  Bosgana had a double-double before half-time, finishing with 21 points, 15 rebounds, six assists, two steals, and a block.  An impressive stat line. As a team, Stanford out rebounded FSU by 17 (52 to 35). That was important because the CARD also committed 12 more turnovers (18 to 6) than FSU - a testament to FSU's aggressive defense.  That aggressive defense resulted in FSU being called for eight more fouls than Stanford (23 to 15) -- an impressive difference since the ACC officials appear to be slow to use their whistles. 

 

                  Sparkplug freshman Shay Ijiwoye had seven points and could have been in double figures had she hit more than three of her eight free throws. Going forward Shay will need to further improve her 37.5% free throw shooting as it almost appeared that FSU was employing a "hack-a-Shay" tactic in the last minutes of the game. They fouled Shay four times in the last four minutes, twice in the last minute. Nonetheless, Shay's speed, energy, and quick hands were a huge factor in Stanford's victory. The most indelible image from the game was Ijiwoye's leaping interception of FSU's inbounds pass at the end of the game with Stanford clinging to a four-point lead! Shay's exuberant leaping dribble as the clock ticked down perfectly embodied the excited energy she brings to the team.

                  

The Changing World of Women's Basketball

 

            The Stanford model has always been recruiting talented student-athletes who value a Stanford degree and develop their skills over four years.  Freshmen almost never started at the beginning of the season and some standout seniors didn't really get their shot until their senior season. Recruitment was essentially over once the student athlete had formally "committed" to a program.  Coaches could comfortably assume that the effort they put into developing a player with potential would translate to the win column in future. 

 

                  The transfer portal and the rise of direct recruiting by booster "collectives" has changed that. Coaches are piecing together teams from the transfer portal -- in some cases adding a missing piece in others replacing the team that transferred out.  Florida State had ZERO freshmen on its roster and nearly half of their players were transfers.  Stanford has two transfers -- Tess Heal and Mary Ashly Stevenson.  Four players -- Kiki Iriafen, Agnes Emma-Nnopu, Indya Nivar, and Laureen Betts -- who spent at least one season at Stanford are now playing on other nationally ranked teams.  

 

                  Although some transfers are due to players (or their parents) being unhappy with the player's amount of playing time or failure to be "featured" in the team's offense -- others are about the money being offered.  In this new world even students who have "committed" to a program can change their mind and go elsewhere.  Some estimate that if Stanford wants to actually enroll the five outstanding recruits who have committed to Stanford, it will take over a million dollars for NIL money.  It will also take money to ensure that talented players on this year's team stick around.

 

                  Stanford's response is Lifetime Cardinal -- the Stanford NIL collective.  In future columns and website stories, we will be talking more about LIFETIME CARDINAL and how we Stanford Women's Basketball fans can support it.  Stay tuned.

 

Questions

 

1.  Will the Maples Magic Last?

Stanford has a bizarre "perfect record" this season -- undefeated at home and without a win on the road.  The first question is, will the Maples Magic help the CARD get another big win on Sunday when NC State -- the team that ended Stanford's season last year -- comes to Maples.  We can at least be sure that the three-point line will be both correct and consistent -- something that wasn't true in last year's Regional Tournament games.

                  

2.  Has the team "left it too late?"

It looks like this team has started to find its footing.  But it will probably take at least 19 or 20 wins to make the NCAA tournament.  Stanford, at 9-6, has 14 regular season games remaining -- five of them against teams ranked in the top 25 including road games against Notre Dame and Duke.  This team can do it -- but it will not be easy.