The First New Star

Two Exhibitions Played:  Now for the ones that count!

 

            Fans have now had two opportunities to preview the "Kate Paye Era" of Stanford Women's Basketball.  The 2024-25 team has been on display for two exhibition games.  The first was the Red & White Scrimmage where Stanford players, Coach "Bird" McCall, alum Hannah Jump, and the team's male practice players participated in a four-quarter scrimmage.  In that scrimmage the "White" team consisted of team members, but the identity of those players changed at the end of quarters.  The "Red" team had as its core the male practice players, Bird, Jump, Stavi Papadaki, and Lauren Green.  The second was an exhibition against Division II Cal State Los Angeles.  Neither returning starting point guard Talana Lepolo nor freshman point guard Shay Ijiwoye participated in either exhibition due to injuries. 

 

Red & White Scrimmage

 

                  The unique format of the Red & White scrimmage created challenges for analyzing the team's performance. Talana's absence as she recovers from her off-season knee surgery only added to that difficulty.  But, one fact is abundantly clear - this is a young team. Gone from the "White" team were the four players (Brink, Iriafen, Jump, and Lepolo) who averaged more than 25 minutes per game last season.  While Talana should be back on the court soon, replacing All American/PAC-12 Player of the Year Brink, team leading scorer All American Iriafen, and Stanford's three-point career record holder Jump will not be easy.  They scored over 61% of Stanford's points last year (47.4 of the team's 77.5 points per game.)  Of the returning players, other than Lepolo who average over 30, only Demetre averaged over 20 minutes a game (21). Brooke and senior Elena Bosgana are experienced players with good three point stokes -- they will need to provide solid leadership and consistent play if this young team is going to secede. 

 

                  The team's five newcomers include two players with college experience, Tess Heal and Mary Ashley Stevenson, and three solid recruits.  Point guard Heal, a junior from Australia, transferred from Santa Clara where she was #4 in the country in made free throws.  Wing Stevenson transferred from Purdue where she was the Big Ten Freshman of the Year. The three freshman newcomers are 6'4" center Kennedy Umeh, 6'3" Harper Peterson, and 5'6" guard Shay Ijwoye.  All five new players are learning the Stanford system, and the freshmen are just making the transition from high school to college.  That transition involves playing a faster game on a larger court with a longer three-point line against older players.  Bottom line, this is a team one expects to get better as the season goes along.

 

                  There were some other clues to the season ahead in the Red & White scrimmage.  First, returning sophomore Nunu Agara showed that she had made the improvement one hopes to see in a returning sophomore.  Fellow returnees Ogden and Clardy also showed increased confidence but didn't quite seem to have "put it all together."  This was most evident with Ogden, clearly a very talented player, who seemed to lack that solid sense of when to pass and when to push, resulting in some missed opportunities on offense.  Heal, despite being in a new system, acquitted herself well subbing for the missing Talana.  Similarly, Harriel showed the maturity of four years at Stanford -- and seems ready to play a significant role on this team. All of these players clearly have an "upside” and we expect the talented Stanford coaching staff to help them achieve real improvement as individual players and as a team.

 

                  The good news was that the team played with pace and ball movement.  The bad news was that the team missed way too many shots.  There were no stats displayed so it is hard to know what the shooting percentages were -- but unlike last year when it was raining made threes, this year the "rain" was hit and miss, with too many misses. There were similar struggles at the rim.

 

 

Exhibition Against CAL State LA

 

            The good news for the CARD is that nobody got hurt and six players scored in double figures -- led by Nunu Agara's monster 25 point, 13 rebound, 5 assists, and two block game.  Stanford played with good pace, evidenced by Stanford's 91 total points.  Although Stanford had a number of good looks that didn't fall, overall the shooting percentages were very close to the season averages from last year.  (Total FG% 46.3% last year to 46.9%; 3-PT % 34.6% last year to 34.5%) Free throw shooting was another plus. The team hit 91% of their 23 freebies.  There were only two misses, both early misses from players who hit a combined 15 of 17 -- not bad at all!  

 

                  The bad news is that although Stanford won this game by over 21 points, it was not the blow out that most would have expected against a Division II team with only two players over 6' on the roster.  The Cardinal "won" every quarter, but the margin for each quarter was between four and seven points.  One major factor in this surprisingly even game was CSLA's efficient 11 of 26 (42.3%) from the three-point range and 44% success from the floor overall. Obviously, Stanford needs to improve on defense! Some of that improvement should come when Talana Lepolo, generally a strong defender, gets back on the floor.  Some will come as the team gains more experience playing together since Stanford does a lot of switching on defense. However, a key factor in defensive improvement involves players making a commitment to defense.  Players need to "hang their hats" on their defense -- coaches need to ask for that and reward it with playing time.

 

 

A Star Starts to Shine!

 

                  Coming into this season with Brink, Jump, and Iriafen gone, one big question was who will be the next Stanford Star? Possible candidates included senior Brooke Demetre, senior Elena Bosgana, red-shirt junior Jzaniya Harriel, sophomore Nunu Agara, and sophomore Courtney Ogden.  Bosgana, Demetre, and Agara were Stanford's fourth, fifth, and sixth leading scorers last season. Harriel was last season's three-point percentage leader (39.5%). Ogden, the most highly rated recruit in last year's freshman class, had been hampered by nagging injuries but showed flashes of brilliance.  

 

                  At the Red & White scrimmage, Agara flashed strong signals that she was ready to shine.  Against Cal State LA she transformed those signals into a star worthy performance. On offense, Nunu attacked the rim with confidence, pulled down seven "O-boards," stepped out to make one of her two 3-point shots, and was Stanford's assist leader with five.  On defense Nunu was generally an effective defender, grabbed seven rebounds, and managed two blocks -- albeit against a team lacking in size.  Additionally, Nunu was a vocal leader on the floor -- helping to direct and encourage her teammates. She was a warrior.  However, for me the best Agara moment came with her on the bench in the games waning moments. Freshman post Kennedy Umeh credits Agara, her teammate on the Gold Medal winning USA 2022 U17 team, as her inspiration and her reason for committing to Stanford. When Kennedy grabbed her first rebounds and scored her first basket as a Stanford player, Nunu smiled, cheered, jumped up and down enthusiastically! That unselfish enthusiasm for a teammate's performance from a player who had just put in over 30 exhausting minutes on the court is the true hallmark of a Stanford star. Coaches and players talk about the Stanford sisterhood.  In her obvious joy over Kennedy's success, Nunu exhibited it!

 

                  Over the course of the year, other players need to shine.  Winning teams have more than one star, sometimes more than one superstar.  The performances against CSLA hint that other Stanford players will have multiple star turns this season.  Let's show up and watch.  Next game -- Monday night against Le Moyne at 7:00 pm!  That game, the first official game of the season, will be followed by a game against Washington State, Thursday also at 7 pm.  Then Sunday at noon, Stanford will play Gonzaga in a noon game that will also feature the unveiling of the Tara VanDerveer Court at Maples Pavilion. 

My thoughts on the New ERA

 

A New World 

            Stanford Women's Basketball will open its 2024-25 season on October 30 with an exhibition against Cal State LA.  There will be 14 players available -- nine back from last season -- all wearing traditional Stanford uniforms.  There will be one more coach on the bench (6 instead of last year's five) with four back from last year, and the team will still play its home games in Maples Pavilion.  Sounds almost normal. 

 

                  Yet, it is virtually impossible to overstate how different women's basketball and particularly Stanford Women's Basketball is from five years ago when Stanford won its most recent National Championship by defeating fellow PAC-12 team, Arizona State.  There have been total sea changes for college athletics, for west coast college athletics, and specifically for Stanford Women's basketball.  The changes are, in many ways, all connected and all connected to the effect that college football has had on the nature of college athletics. 

 

A New Era for College Sports

 

            Once upon a time college athletes were amateurs and college athletics existed for the pleasure the contests brought to fans - primarily students and alums - and the sense of accomplishment they provided to the student athletes. At least that is what the fantasy that may have existed in the distant past told us.  The transaction was college athletes received scholarships that provided them with a free college education while the school sold tickets that recouped the cost of those scholarships and made alums happy. Although there were professional leagues for football, basketball, and baseball, player salaries were quite moderate compared to what a professional in other fields -- physicians, lawyers, and business executives could expect to earn. 

 

                  Over time, especially for "revenue" sports, the deal changed with the change driven in large part by the revenue the sports provided to the schools-- particularly from their media deals.  Football was the main driver because NFL rules require players be "at least three years" past high school, while basketball players need only one year and baseball has always drafted players right out of high school. College football coaches started receiving huge salaries making them, at many schools, far and away the most highly compensated employee of the school.  In 2024, the nation's highest paid university president earned 2.4 million while the top 60 college football coaches all earned more.  Decisions about athletics issues became more about generating athletic success than about caring for the student athletes.  Not surprisingly, student athletes began challenging the NCAA's rules limiting /prohibiting their ability to be compensated for their school's (and the NCAA's) use of their images, their ability to change schools, and prohibiting their schools from compensating them for their efforts.

 

                  At the same time, the entire notion of amateur sports began to erode with professional athletes becoming eligible for the Olympics and "appearance" payments for elite athletes in all sports becoming commonplace. Furthermore, the compensation for professional athletes increased significantly.  For example, in 1970 the average salary for professional football players was between $20,000 and $60,000 a year while the current minimum salary in the NFL is $795,000. As college athletes increasingly viewed their sport as their profession, they became less comfortable with performing for free, especially athletes coming from low-income families.  Being unable to afford a pizza or a fancy coffee while watching coaches get paid millions for the results of the student athletes' performances seemed unfair. This was especially true in sports where the probability of becoming a successful professional is low while the probability of sustaining a significant injury is high.  Only 1.6% of college football players and 1.2% of male college basketball players end up playing for US professional teams.  For female athletes the numbers are even more dismal with only 33 women even being drafted by the WNBA last year.  Additionally, although earnings for female athletes in sports other than golf and tennis have not generally had the potential to run to seven figures, there are significant signs that in the not-too-distant future, female professional athletes will be much more highly compensated.  Already female athletes are signing endorsement deals that pay handsomely.

 

                    The NCAA, in its true monopolistic bully fashion, refused to change their rules. Courts and legislatures were more sympathetic about the obvious exploitation. As a result, student athletes can now transfer to new schools as many times as they chose and interested parties (but so far not schools) can pay student athletes for among other things the use of their photos, interviews, and appearances (NIL).  Furthermore, although coaches are still prohibited from directly recruiting students committed to another school, nothing prohibits other students, alums, or other interested parties from contacting any student athlete and offering them compensation should they chose to enroll at a different school. This relatively unregulated situation was almost certainly a factor in Kiki Iriafen's decision to leave for USC. Rumor has it that Kiki, a rising senior All-American who would have been this team's leader, was offered an NIL deal in the high six figures to transfer!

 

                  Essentially, college athletes have gone from being highly regulated legally defined amateurs to being unrestricted prospective professionals.  They can earn money for everything from appearing at a charity or booster club event to getting eyeballs to their social media accounts. The implications for all of this include the need for coaches to constantly re-recruit their existing players while recruiting new players from both the high school ranks AND the rosters of other teams.  It also means that student athletes need to consider new factors -- from what payment a school's "collective" will provide to what kind of media exposure will their play at a school generate as they select a school. At some point in the future there may be more regulation (as there is in professional sports), but for now the competition for college athletes is truly the "wild west." 

                   Stanford University has always been a place where student athletes were truly student athletes.  Now Stanford is trying to figure out how to handle a world where it's more "professional athlete currently enrolled at this school." It's too early to know how Stanford will adjust to this new reality -- so stay tuned.

 

Bye-Bye PAC-12 -- Hello ACC

 

            The next sea change was the dissolving of the PAC-12 Conference.  This year for the first time in 106 years, Stanford will not be playing in what has been the Pacific Athletic Conference. It has been sacrificed on the altar of football and big bucks.  The apparent insatiable appetite for football at all levels has resulted in huge media contracts for college sports conferences.  Unfortunately, PAC-12 leadership dropped the ball in that arena.  That made PAC-12 schools attractive targets for poaching, especially schools with strong football programs and large media markets.  The Big Ten moved in and peeled off USC and UCLA.  Once they were gone, the prospects for a strong media contract diminished and both Oregon and Washington were willing to jump ship -- also joining the Big Ten.  Stanford's less than stellar recent performance on the football field apparently did not attract the same interest.  When the dust settled ten of the PAC-12 schools had  departed with both Stanford and Cal joining the ACC -- the Atlantic Coast Conference.

 

                  The predecessor of the PAC-12 was founded in 1915, with Stanford joining in 1918.  The conference became the Pacific Athletic Conference, the PAC-8, the PAC-10, and finally the PAC-12. What all those iterations had in common was a geographic link to at least the western US and mostly the Pacific Coast.  That meant that some away games were within driving distance, and all could be reached by plane in under three hours -- with direct flights usually available.  Additionally, the teams were largely geographically paired -- requiring only one plane flight and a bus ride for a two game trip. It also meant that the Conference tournament -- once it was instituted -- was held in a similarly convenient location.  Other than CAL, the closest ACC team is fellow newcomer SMU located in Dallas, TX.  The ACC tournament will be held somewhere on the East Coast.... For student athletes it means a number of long plane flights, a burden only somewhat ameliorated by the use of charter flights.  For fans the geographic proximity meant that it was reasonable to consider attending some of the team's away games. That won't be true for ACC games as we won't have the benefit of charter flights. 

 

Head Coach

 

                  The final sea change is on the bench.  Since 1985 the one constant for Stanford WB was that Tara Van Derveer was Stanford's head coach. Even when she took a year off to transform the US landscape for women's basketball, we knew she was Stanford's coach and would be back. (The '96 US National team, which went 60 and 0, is widely created with creating the foundation for professional women's basketball in the US.) During Tara's tenure on the Stanford bench, the team won three national championships, and had 14 Final Four appearances, 21 Elite Eight appearances, 28 Sweet Sixteen appearances, made the NCAA tournament every year except Tara's first season, and won the Conference tournament (PAC-10/12) 14 times.  All of those numbers for Tara, except the National Championships, would be one number higher if Tara were to be credited with the 29-3 record of Stanford's 1995-96 team coached during her absence by interim head coaches Amy Tucker and Marianne Staley (and Geno would be 29 games further behind in career wins).  

 

                  Tara was the fan's security blanket.  After her first year as head coach, her teams never had a losing record and from her third year on, only two Tara coached teams failed to win at least 20 games!  No matter how overmatched Stanford teams might appear to be on paper, we always knew that a Tara coached team couldn't be counted out. Stanford was the last team to defeat UConn before their record setting win streak and was the team that ended that streak.  Tara's legendary coaching skills earned her a place in every possible Basketball Hall of Fame and made Stanford a reasonable choice for any young woman basketball star who could meet Stanford's admission requirements.

 

                  It seems likely that the other changes contributed to Tara's decision.  She has been the Dean of West Coast women's basketball and its head cheerleader.  The loss of a conference and the relationships with her fellow coaches she worked so hard to build had to be a blow. Additionally, I can personally attest to the fact that, as we get older, long plane flights are more draining.  Finally, and probably most importantly, Tara has always viewed coaching as a means to help young women develop into their best selves both as players and, even more importantly, as people.  The prospect of players constantly transferring in and out uproots her developmental approach to coaching.

 

                  Van Derveer is being replaced as head coach by her protege, Kate Paye.  Kate was a walk-on who worked her way up to being the point guard on Stanford's 1992 National Championship team.  She came to Stanford as an assistant coach in 2007 after working as an assistant at Pepperdine and San Diego State.  Since 2016 Paye has been Stanford's Associate Head Coach. She is widely considered to be a top coach, having won multiple national awards as the top assistant coach in women's basketball.  It may well be that Kate will carve out a legendary career as Stanford's head coach -- but that remains to be seen.  She will certainly need to adjust to the new world of college women's basketball, a world where NIL money and media exposure may be much more enticing than the value of a Stanford degree.  

 

My Personal Reactions

 

                  As a fan, I confess to being sad about Tara's decision to retire and Kiki's decision to transfer, but I can't fault either for their decision.  Tara was going to retire someday.  

Taking on the challenges and heartbreak of all these changes must have been a daunting prospect, especially when she wants to spend more time with an aging mother who won't be here forever. I selfishly wish Kiki had made a different decision as I have genuinely loved watching her play and watching her develop. But, I can't fault her for her decision. She had already earned her Stanford degree. At USC she gets to play at home where her family can show up regularly in front of what are likely to be sell-out crowds and has been paid way more than the highest WNBA salary for doing it. Furthermore, playing next to JuJu she has a very legitimate chance to win a national championship. Finally, perhaps she is temperamentally more comfortable playing "Robin" to JuJu's "Batman," as she did with Cam, than playing Superwoman with a supporting cast. 

                The best thing we can do as fans is SHOW UP!!!  When Maples is full and rocking, it's a lovely place to play -- but on nights when only a few thousand fans show up the empty seats can make other pastures look awfully green. See you at Maples.  

A New ERA -- Countdown to the ACC!

    There have been so many changes!  A new era for Stanford Women's Basketball -- the Kate Paye era.  A new era for Stanford sports -- the ACC era.  A new day for college sports -- the NIL and professional sports era.   It is taking a bit longer than planned to get things up and running here...stay tuned.  

    Like the team I spent time in Italy this summer (although not in the same location) and recovery is taking longer than I expected.  Stay tuned.  Included will be a short interview with Brooke Demetre -- we ran into each other in the London airport!

Nancy

This TEAM Refuses to Lose!

 

Opening Rounds at Maples

GO KIKI GO!

 

                  Stanford followed a solid "tune up" opening round game against a tough and determined Norfolk State team with a heavyweight battle against Iowa State.  Against Norfolk only won the opening quarter by two points, but the CARD won each of the following quarters by eight to ten points.  All ten players in Stanford's normal rotation had contributions that showed up nicely on the stat sheet, with four CARD players scoring in double digits.  It wasn't quite a "laugher," but the outcome was never seriously in doubt, only the margin of victory.

 

                  The Iowa State game was a different animal.  Cardinal fans could not exhale until Brooke Demetre's two free-throw makes with 11 seconds to go.  Kiki's two free-throws, her 40th and 41st points, with five seconds left to give Stanford a six-point lead sealed the outcome! The Cyclones are a freshman heavy team --and freshman heavy teams often "come on" in March as the freshmen mature.  Iowa State was led by senior guard Emily Ryan, an All-Big 12 star, and freshman post Audi Crooks.  Crooks, an Honorable Mention All-American, made a big splash on Friday night when she scored 40 points in Iowa State's opening round comeback against Maryland. 

 

                  There were twelve ties and 18 lead changes during the game - the last lead change coming with 19 seconds remaining in overtime!  Iowa State's largest lead, seven points, came at the end of the first quarter.  Stanford's largest lead, six points, came at the end of overtime.  Iowa State won the rebounding battle by 6 -- one of the rare times Stanford has been outrebounded and even rarer times when Stanford has won despite being outrebounded.  Part of that was that Stanford won the battle of turnovers (Iowa 19 to Stanford's 11), points off turnovers, bench points, and assists.  

 

Refusing to Lose!

 

                  Last year Stanford was challenged in Round Two and lost -- this year the CARD was challenged in Round Two and came out victorious. The difference was that this Stanford TEAM is a team that refused to lose.  A big part of that was Kiki Iriafen -- Kiki had a massive game!  She scored 41 points on shots from everywhere, she also grabbed 16 rebounds, four assists, three blocks, and a steal -- and that doesn't include the number of times that Kiki kept the ball alive on rebounds and hit the floor on lose balls.  So, certainly Kiki was the star, but this was a true team victory.  Kiki scored 41 points but seven other Cardinal players accounted for the other 46, with only Hannah Jump hitting double figures. Numerous pundits have commented on the different feel about this year's team -- and it was evident in a number of ways.  Perhaps one of the biggest was the willingness of Brooke Demetre to put up her game changing three pointers in the waning minutes of the 4th quarter and the last 20 seconds of overtime.  Stanford players stayed together in a way that allowed players to take the open shots the offense gave them.  

 

                  As special as the victory was -- there were also weaknesses exposed that will need to be addressed if the Cardinal is to not only "get out of Maples" but also get to Cleveland.  Iowa State hit 63% of their three-point shots as Cardinal players went under ball screens and lost three-point shooters on switches.  Stanford players can play good defense -- there were flashes of by every player. Agara's defense was big, especially the charge she drew on Iowa's Ryan.  Demetre had some big moments that don't show up on the stat sheet -- like racing down court to prevent an Iowa's Bristow from making a layup on a steal.  But, it will take more defense and more consistent defense to win at the next level. 

 

Why is Kiki "the best player nobody is talking about?"

 

                  Kiki Iriafen's monster game carried Stanford into the Sweet 16.  She was truly a warrior!  But why were the pundits surprised?  Kiki scored 30 points with 17 rebounds against Florida State and was named MOP of the Thanksgiving tournament in Las Vegas.  She scored 36 points with 12 rebounds against Oregon State to help Tara become the winningest coach in college basketball -- with most of the basketball world watching. 

 

                  So why can't the pundits talk about Kiki?  The Sports Center Show after the game hardly mentioned Kiki -- you only learned that Kiki scored 41 points if you read the crawler under the video but they did tell us about Crooks 40 point game from Friday!  If you go to the NCAA website they have highlights of Page Bueckers scoring 32 points and JuJu scoring 26 -- but the Stanford "highlights" on the video board is of Stanford's 1998 loss to Harvard!  Is this East Coast bias?  Is it that the pundits only have room for one Stanford star so they can't talk about the player who has led the Cardinal in scoring ALL YEAR LONG!!??!! Kiki has more double-doubles than Page Bueckers, she averages a double-double in rebounds and scoring.  Kiki hits over 50% of her shots.  Kiki Iriafen has put up numbers that deserve to be recognized with All-American accolades.  Beyond her numbers, her physical play -- her ability to take a bump and finish through it -- her willingness to hit the deck for loose balls are all the attributes of an All-American.  Hopefully that Cardinal can keep their run going in Portland -- giving the rest of the world more time to give Kiki the flowers she deserves.  

 

The New "World" in Women's Hoops

 

                  This year's NCAA tournament feels different. For decades there was a clear line between the "cream" of the women's basketball world and the rest of the field.  That was true in the PAC-12 and in the NCAA more broadly.  The NCAA bracket generally had two opening rounds where the top seeds won by 25 to 50 points while middle seeds played close games to determine who got the chance to be routed next.  Games didn't get interesting until the Sweet 16.  Thus far in this year's Women's NCAA Tournament there have been four upsets- one in the first round when 6 Seed Louisville lost to Middle Tennessee State.   Most of the Second-Round games were competitive, #7 Seed Duke beat #2 Seed Ohio State and two #4 seed host schools lost to #5 seeds. Iowa, UCLA, and NC State all had to battle to win - even when the higher seed won the game wasn't settled until the last quarter!  Stanford's game went to overtime and wasn't settled until the last minute! more on this issue in later posts....

An upset at the Wrong time

Not Stanford's Day

 

                  There was finally an upset in the PAC-12 Tournament.  Unfortunately, that meant that #1 seed Stanford, the regular season Champions, lost to #2 seed USC.  This was only USC's second PAC-12 Tournament victory.  The Trojans' other victory was in 2014 when they also defeated the Cardinal.  Stanford finishes their PAC-12 Tournament record with 15 Championship wins in 20 Championship games, a 75% winning percentage -- not bad.  But, of course, today's loss is the freshest one.  

 

                  As an observer, it appeared that Stanford played nervous while USC played hungry.  Players that are usually "money" for the CARD struggled (Hannah Jump shooting 1 for 7 and Brooke Demetre going 1-4) while USC players who have not hit big numbers or high percentages all year scored in big bunches. USC players with shooting percentages in the low to mid 30% range were hitting at the mid to high 40% level.  It was that sort of day. Shots that usually fall for Stanford circled the rim and spun out or teetered on the rim and fell off, while shots for USC hung on the rim and fell in. Beyond the shots not falling, the biggest story was rebounding. Stanford generally wins the rebounding battle. Prior to today, Stanford was the nation’s number one team in rebound margin — out rebounding opponents by 14!  In this game the Cardinal was out rebounded by 20 -- 48 to 28.  The disparity on the O-Boards was even greater with USC collecting 18 offensive rebounds while Stanford had only 6. The difference was reflected in USC's 14 second chance points compared to 3 for the Cardinal. Stanford is not going to win many games when out rebounded by those margins.  Additionally, Stanford only hit 4 of their 7 free throws while USC hit 11 of 12 from the line.  

 

No 51 Point Outing

                  There were a number of positives for Stanford -- including the solid play of Elena Bosgana on JuJu Watkins.  Not only did JuJu fail to "go off" for 51 points, but she was held to a season low nine points, with the majority coming at the free throw line.  JuJu didn't score a field goal in the first half, and for the game went 0 for 3 from the three-point line with only three rebounds and one assist. An oddity is that JuJu's season high and low scoring games both came against Stanford.  In addition to defending JuJu, Elena matched JuJu's offensive production, scoring nine points. Unfortunately, it is likely that the defensive attention to Watkins, especially given the relatively quick turnaround between late Friday night and Sunday afternoon, played a role in Stanford's problems with rebounding.  Another positive for the CARD was the play of Chloe Clardy.  In fifteen minutes on the floor, Chloe scored four points, had two assists, a steal and a block with no turnovers. Her tenacious defense and quick hands gave USC trouble.  I think we can expect to see more of Chloe as post season play continues. Cameron Brink was, as usual, a beast despite being clobbered by the very physical USC play.  Cam had six blocks and 10 rebounds to go with her team leading 19 points.  Kiki also put-up big numbers even though she also had shots roll round the rim and spin out, scoring 18 points and grabbing 7 rebounds. 

 

                  The other good news is that the USC team is unlike most other teams the CARD is likely to play this year or in the future.  The USC roster includes five graduate transfers and a senior -- that's 29 years of college playing experience and a lot of physical maturity.  Additionally, USC benefited from a "let them play" attitude from the officials - especially in the first half when USC opened up their nine-point lead. Stanford played the Trojans even once the officials started calling some of USC more blatant holds and hinders.  Unfortunately, when you have dug a nine-point hole, playing even isn't enough.  USC was able to extend their lead in the final minutes when the CARD started gambling more on both sides of the ball in an effort to catch up. Perhaps the best summation was one Tara offered, "we left our offense back at the hotel."

 

More to Come -- March Madness is On Deck

                  The good news is that this is not the end for this team.  Stanford has a 28-5 record, including multiple Top 25 wins.  Losing to the nation's fifth ranked team in a week when four other Top 10 teams suffered losses shouldn't impact Stanford's NCAA seeding too dramatically. Of course, given the slights Stanford has suffered at the hands of the NCAA selection committee over the years, nothing is certain.  The biggest question is how will Stanford respond to this loss and how will it help them get better?

 

                  See you at Maples for the first round of the NCAA tournament.   

A "Chalk" Bracket

BEST YEAR EVER

 

                  For fans of women's basketball, the final PAC-12 tournament is special.  As this column is being written, only the Championship game remains.  Eight of the ten games that have already occurred involved at least one team ranked in the national Top 25, four were between two teams ranked in the national Top 25.  The Championship game will be between the nation's #2 team, Stanford, and the nation's #5 team, USC.  The quality of competition here has been Sweet 16 and Final Four level.  There are women's basketball fans here who have traveled from the East Coast despite not having a "team" in the tournament just because they wanted to see the display of top talent involved in this tournament!!!  What a swan song for the PAC-12.

 

                  In the first ten games there have been several "never happened before" stories.  One amazing story line is that for the first time in the 22-year history of the PAC-12 tournament the bracket has been "all chalk" -- meaning that there has not been a single upset.  The higher seeded team has won every game!  The games that have occurred are the games that were predicted by the bracket. That is particularly amazing because in this year's loaded conference play, almost every weekend had included at least one upset -- with the higher ranked team losing to a lower ranked team.  Every team, including Oregon, the Conference's last place team, had at least one win against a team ranked above them in the conference standings but not in this tournament! Hopefully the CARD will be able to sustain that "all chalk" story line as Stanford -- the regular season Conference Champion -- is the higher seeded team in the final game.  Although the higher seeded team has won every game -- two games have gone to double overtime, another "never happened before." Oregon State needed double overtime to defeat Colorado in the Quarterfinals and USC needed double overtime to defeat UCLA in the Semifinals.  Stanford did not need overtime for any of the CARD's wins, but both victories involved coming back from eight-point halftime deficits, deficits that had been even higher at some point.   In both games, Stanford fans couldn't breathe easily until the last minute!!!

 

                  That Championship game will be the 20th of the PAC-12’s 23 Championship games that Stanford has participated in -- an incredible record of consistent excellence.  Stanford has won 15 of those prior Championships. Stanford players have been named the tournament's Most Outstanding Player 16 times (including current Stanford assistant Erica McCall.)   So far in this tournament several Stanford players are obvious candidates for the MOP -- led by Kiki Iriafen and Cameron Brink.  Of course, the CARD will almost certainly need to defeat USC in the Championship for this to be relevant. Stanford's Nicole Powell is the only player to be named Tournament MOP while playing for the losing team -- and that was in the league’s first tournament in 2002.  Nonetheless, it is worth noting the strong play so far by Iriafen and Brink. Kiki was the scoring leader against CAL with 28 points, 18 rebounds, 5 assists, and a steal -- followed by 15 points, 9 rebounds, 4 assists, and two blocks against Oregon State.  Against CAL Cam had 15 points, 14 rebounds, 3 assists, and a block -- followed by 16 points, 12 rebounds, 9 assists, two blocks, and a steal against Oregon State.  Brink's stat line is what one would expect from the First Team All-American that Cam is.  But, Kiki's stat line suggests that Stanford's leading scorer (18.6 ppg), who averages over 11 rebounds per game also deserves to be an All-American.  

 

 "Physicality" in The Women's Game

 

                  One significant and sad second-half incident of the Stanford - CAL game was an injury to CAL's Michele Onyiah.  She fouled Cameron Brink and as Brink fell back, their heads collieded -- the back of Cam's head into the front of Onyiah's. Onyiah lay on the floor -- eventually leaving bent over and holding a towel under her nose.  This injury or one like it was the predictable result of the level of physicality being allowed in the women's game, somewhat across the board in this tournament and around the country.  In this tournament there have been numerous times when players were pulled or knocked to the floor with no fouls called.  It's not so much that the officials were "favoring" one team over another -- they were just allowing a lot of bumping and banging.  In the late Semifinal, several players -- including JuJu Watkins and Charisma Osborne -- left the game after laying of the floor.  Unlike Onyiah, both Watkins and Osborne returned to the game.  Hopefully all of these players will be healthy for whatever remains of their team's season -- but the tolerance for this increased rough play in women's basketball endangers the athletes and deprives fans of a chance to watch the best players. 

 

 

Stanford 71 -- CAL 57

 

                  Stanford trailed by eight at the end of the first half. The game had begun as a "back and forth," with two lead changes in the 1st quarter. But CAL led the entire 2nd quarter with a lead that kept growing!  The CARD seemed a bit out of sorts -- CAL was by far the more poised and aggressive team.  That switched in the second half.  Stanford came out with intensity.  It only took the CARD a tad over three minutes to achieve the first tie of the second half -- one of five ties in the third quarter.  Stanford entered the 4th quarter up by four points and maintained a growing lead throughout the final quarter.  By the middle of the 4th, Stanford was up by double digits. The CARD never led by less than ten for the rest of the game. But with CAL's ability to heat up on threes, Stanford fans didn't breathe easy until the final minutes. 

 

                  The box score for the game was quite unusual.  Despite ten CARD players being on the floor for at least two minutes, only FOUR of them scored a single point!  Those four, Iriafen, Bosgana, Brink, and Lepolo, were all in double figures.  The other six players, including Hannah Jump, took only 10 of Stanford's 63 shots -- none of them attempting more than two shots!  It appears that Stanford players were "feeding the hot hand" as three of those players had very impressive shooting percentages -- led by Kiki's 79% shooting for 28 of Stanford's 71 points.  Unfortunately, those numbers hide the important roles played by the players who didn't score, especially their defensive roles.  Not every contribution is reflected on the "regular" box score.  The steals and rebounds show up but the box-outs and defensive pressure doesn’t — but those things are key to any victory and everybody who got into the game contributed.

 

 

Stanford 66 - Oregon State 57

 

                  The final score doesn't reflect how close this game was, and for fans in the arena it felt even closer than it actually was.  Perhaps that was because fans remember the final weekend of regular season when Stanford was up seven with four minutes to go, but OSU made it a one-possession for the last three minutes. In this game, Stanford was up by seven with 3:34 remaining.  But this time the CARD didn't let the Beavers get closer than seven in the remaining minutes.

 

                  This was an incredibly physical game.  OSU clearly didn't intend to allow Stanford to dominate in the paint -- and Reagan Beers knows how to use her big body.  Beers pushed Brink to the floor several times as she moved into position to score with no foul call.  Beers also managed to disrupt several layup attempts by Brink and Iriafen with her body without a foul call.  But, as has been said all season, against Stanford teams must "pick their poison." Stanford hit 46.7% of their three-point attempts, all of which occurred in the 2nd and 3rd quarters as the CARD dug out of what had been a 16-point deficit. Three-point shots helped Hannah Jump lead all scorers with 20 points (8-13 overall, 4-7 from three).  Brooke Demetre also hit two important back-to-back threes to ignite the Cardinal. Unlike the win over CAL when the box score didn't reflect that the entire team contributed, in this game the box score did.  Of course, timing is everything -- so the box score's recording of one steal by Chloe Clardy doesn't reflect that the steal occurred in the final three-and-a-half minutes, taking the steam out of OSU's rally attempt. This isn't Clardy's first significant steal.  Amazingly, despite averaging only 10.2 minutes a game, Chloe's 22 steals are second only to Cameron Brink's 23!  As the tournament season continues, Clardy's quick hands and solid "handles" could be a big factor.

 

                  Following the game, Cameron Brink shared what Assistant Coach Erica "Bird" McCall has told the team about what she said when her Stanford team was down 17 to Notre Dame in an Elite-Eight game they eventually won. "Bird" had announced in the locker room -- "alright we've got them right where we want them."  Cam says that has become a team joke -- reminding the team that they can come back.  These two "comeback" games reinforce that ability to battle back for this Stanford team.  Hopefully they won't need to do that again, but now they know they can.  I will defer summing up the tournament and the state of the team until the break between the tournament and Selection Sunday. 

 

The Las Vegas Experience

 

                  The tournament seems relatively well attended, with Oregon State having the largest number of fans based on shirt colors in the stands.  Of course this may reflect the early loss by Oregon.  It may also, as some fans have suggested, reflect the lack of other exciting ways to spend your time in Corvallis. But, regardless, OSU had a loud fan presence for both their games. Stanford has a respectable fan representation -- although not the crowd the regular season conference champion, number two ranked team in the country deserves -- but what else is new?

 

                  This year's tournament, like the first Las Vegas tournament, is being held at the MGM Grand's Garden Arena rather than at the Mandalay Bay.  There are some pluses to that.  The MGM is more centrally located on the strip, providing more easily assessable hotel and restaurant options. The biggest fan complaint is that the seats in this arena are not comfortable.  On Thursday when there were four terrific basketball games, most fans had a hard time physically tolerating the experience of sitting in those seats.   At least this time there was water available without buying it, despite not allowing fans to bring refillable water bottles into the arena.  It was strange, however, to see fans being allowed to sit inside the arena holding large beer cans (and other "adult beverage" cans).  If water bottles aren't allowed because they could be projectiles, why are beer cans safe?  

                    Overall, the tournament has been a fun experience — more so because the CARD are winning.  But, under the fun, it is hard to believe that this is the last dance for the PAC-12.  The merchandise booth has done a brisk business in PAC-12 items as fans reach for one final piece of this conference’s storied history. So bittersweet.   

Time for the PAC-12's Last Dance

The Last PAC-12 Champions

 

                  Stanford wrapped up the final PAC-12 regular season with two wins in games at Oregon State and Oregon.  Stanford finished with a regular season record of 26-4, 15-3 in the PAC-12.  With the win at Oregon State, Stanford clinched sole possession of first place in the conference.   The CARD finished with a two-game lead over their closest competitors - the LA schools. 

 

                  Cameron Brink celebrated finishing the regular season in her home state by an incredible stat-sheet stuffing performance.  In a close game against Oregon State, Cam scored 25 points, pulled down 24 rebounds, dished out five assists, and had one block.  Those 24 rebounds tied Stanford's single game record set by Chiney Ogwumike in a game against Oregon eleven years ago. Against Oregon Cam scored 18 points, grabbed 17 rebounds, had five assists, three blocks, and a steal.  That's a two-game total of 43 points and 41 rebounds! The four blocks put Brink over the century mark for the second season in a row.  (Cam needs 17 more blocks to break her own single season record of 118.) According to the announcers, Brink's two double-doubles over the weekend put her over the century mark for career double-doubles.  That stat is not listed in the Stanford career records.  In her post-game interview following the Oregon game, Brink described her role on the Stanford team as being a leader, a scorer, a little bit of everything.  For this weekend and this season, she has been all that.  

                  

Oregon State is a Tough "Out"

 

                  The Oregon State game was hard to find in "real" time as it was only on PAC-12 Oregon due to the competition with men's basketball and their regular Thursday night schedule.  Those able to watch it got a bit of a cardiac workout, as the game went down to the final seconds.  Stanford didn't put the game "out-of-reach" until Kiki Iriafen hit one of two free throws with five seconds remaining to give Stanford a four-point lead.  Although the game was close, Stanford was in the lead virtually the entire game, taking the lead at 5:55 mark in the first quarter and never giving it back.  However, Stanford couldn’t "put-the-game away,” never opening more than an 11-point lead.  Every time the CARD threatened to blow the game open, Oregon State battled back. 

 

                  Stanford has now won both of its matchups with Oregon State this season.  In both games the home team has been without their "star" player.  Stanford beat Oregon State 65-56 at Maples to give Tara Vanderveer her record breaking 1203rd victory without Cameron Brink.  Then, Stanford defeated Oregon State in Corvallis with Raegan Beers on the bench due to the broken nose she suffered against UCLA on Feb. 16.  If both teams can "hold seed" -- and that is certainly not a "given" in the PAC-12 tournament where upsets often reign -- they will meet in the PAC-12 tournament Semi-finals.  

 

Dominating Oregon

                  While Stanford has "exceeded" the pundits' expectations this year, Oregon has had a disappointing season.  Clearly the Ducks miss Te-Hina Paopao who transferred to South Carolina at the end of last season.  They finish the season last in the PAC-12 without any "quality" wins. So it is not surprising that, despite not missing way too many "bunnies," Stanford dominated the Ducks.  

 

                  Playing without Talana Lepolo, the CARD took the lead early. Oregon's only lead was five to four as both teams were cold in the first half of the first quarter.  By the end of the first quarter Stanford was up by seven and the game was never closer than that.  Although Oregon came out hot to open the third quarter, making their first three shots, they were never able to cut the gap below nine points. By the game's end, Stanford was comfortably in control and both Stavi Papadaki and Lauren Green were on the floor.  

 

                  The good news for the CARD was that, in addition to strong performances from Brink and Iriafen (16 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists), the whole team contributed.  Four players had double digits scoring and all nine of the "core" players scored. Seven players had assists and eight players had at least one rebound. If the Cardinal is going to go deep into the post season, the team will need to be able to rely on more than seven players.

 

The Post Season Is Here

 

                  With the regular season over, it's tournament time.  First up is the PAC-12 Tournament where Stanford enters as the number one seed.  But if there is anything that this year's PAC-12 season and the last several years of PAC-12 tournaments has demonstrated it is that rankings don't really matter.  On any given night, any team can beat any team.  The main thing being the number one seed means is that the CARD only needs to win three games to win the tournament, not four.  Amazingly, two teams, Colorado and Utah that were ranked in the nation's top 20 last week, will find themselves playing on the first day of the tournament!  

 

                  Before the season, pundits justified Stanford's ranking of 15th in the nation and third in the PAC-12 by doubting Brink's ability to lead Stanford to a Final Four or even Elite Eight run in the post season.  Of course, in addition to vastly underestimating the value of Cam's leadership, those pundits didn't anticipate Kiki Iriafen's emergence as a legitimate All-American candidate.  Those two, along with the strong play from the other eight members of Tara's "trusted" rotation give Stanford a legitimate chance of getting to Cleveland.  This team has chemistry, talent, and joy -- and great coaching.  Nothing is out of the question -- but then, nothing is a given.  

 

Questions

 

1.  Can Stanford stop missing the easy ones?

All season Stanford has been great from the free throw line and good at finishing at the rim.  Against Oregon that wasn't the case -- Stanford only shot 50% from the free throw line (or course they only had six free throws so that was 3 of 6) and missed on a number of point-blank shots.  Maybe it was the relief of being in control in a game that mostly didn't matter, but these are some of the "little things" that need correcting.  

 

2. Can Stanford grab one last PAC-12 Tournament title?

In my mind, the best title for this version of my blog was, "Save the last dance for the Cardinal."  This upcoming PAC-12 tournament is the league's last dance.  It seems only fitting for the team and the coach who have defined PAC-12 basketball for as long as it has been the PAC-12 to have the confetti fall one last time.

What A Weekend

This Conference is Loaded 

                 The refrain all season long has been that in the PAC-12 there are no guaranteed-win games.  That reality was on full display this weekend.  Stanford began the weekend with a two-game lead over USC and Oregon State and games against Arizona (6-8 in conference play) and Arizona State (3-11 in conference play).  Winning both games would give Stanford at least a share of the PAC-12 regular season championship.  Of course, four of  Arizona's losses were one-possession-losses by a total of eight points. 

 

The starters against Arizona

                  Against Arizona on Friday night Stanford was without Cameron Brink, out with the flu.  Nonetheless, Stanford was in the lead for almost the entire game.  Kiki Iriafen had an All-American worthy 21 points, 15 rebounds, 3 blocks, four assists, and a steal — despite being leveled by very aggressive fouls, including one frightening moment when she went down due to being undercut while in mid-air for a rebound. Hannah Jump went 3 of 5 from the 3-point line. Brooke Demetre, in her second start of the year, scored 15 points, grabbed five rebounds, and had 2 blocks.  With under four minutes remaining Stanford had a nine-point lead on a Demetre three-pointer. But Stanford only scored three more points in the game while Arizona scored 19, taking their first lead of the game with less than two minutes remaining.  Arizona's lead grew in the last twenty seconds as Stanford was forced to foul and Arizona hit their free throws. 

 

                  It was a performance reminiscent of the game at Washington where an exceedingly aggressive defensive team turned a 7-point deficit with two minutes remaining into a tie.  It almost appears that the CARD takes their foot off the gas, making sloppy passes and unnecessary fouls.  Stanford was able to turn that tie into an overtime win against Washington.  But against Arizona the CARD couldn’t take the lead back or even force overtime, losing 61-68.  Postgame, Tara acknowledged being disappointed but noted that the CARD was still in first place in the PAC-12 standings.  Unfortunately, that lead was down to one game with three games remaining.  Stanford couldn't secure at least a share of the PAC-12 championship with one win unless red-hot USC and Oregon State both lost. 

 

Senior Day

Gathering before the Senior Day Game

 

                  Cameron Brink was back on the court for Senior Day, although she was visibly less than her normal self.  After the game she described herself as being about 60%, although the only place that really showed up on the stat sheet was in Cam's free throw shooting.  Brink, a 90% plus free throw shooter on the season, hit less than 50% from the charity stripe, while scoring 14 points, collecting 9 rebounds, dishing out seven assists, and blocking five shots.  Fellow Senior Day honoree Hannah Jump scored 11 points, including 3 three-pointers, four assists, and a block.  Kiki had another All-American level performance, with 22 points, 20 rebounds, and four assists.  The impressive cooperation between Brink and Iriafen was on full display in the clogged-up paint -- often finding each other for easy buckets. It is sad to think that this could have been the last regular season game these two play together!

 

On the Maples bench together in a regular season game for the last time

                  For the Arizona State game point guard Talana Lepolo was the unavailable player.  Most of Talana's normal minutes were covered by Jzaniya Harriel. "J," as she is often called, scored 12 points all on three-pointers.  Harriel's ball handling was generally impressive.  Against a solid defensive team, she had only one of Stanford's 12 turnovers, but she also only had one of Stanford's 19 assists.  Bottom line, the CARD took care of business for Senior Day.  Five players were in double figures, eight players scored, and every player in for more than a minute had a rebound.  

 

Something Extra for Senior Day

                  

                                                             We are Conference Champs

                  The Stanford staff has done a great job preparing for celebrations this year -- and there have been some special ones.  Sunday was no exception.  Not only did Stanford take care of business on Senior Day, but also Oregon State and USC got caught by the "there are no easy games in the PAC-12.”  With word that Washington had defeated Oregon State (playing without an injured Raegan Beers) and Utah holding onto a five-point lead over USC with time running out, the staff put the Utah-USC game up on the video board and brought out plastic containers.  Once Utah secured that victory (which took a while because USC kept fouling) Stanford was assured at least a share of the final PAC-12 regular season championship. Those containers were opened and the staff started handing out blue PAC-12 Championship t-shirts and white PAC-12 Champions hats.  So, the CARD had photos taken in front of a PAC-12 Champions banner and spent the Senior Day celebration in those Championship t-shirts and hats.  

 

                  Senior Day was special and emotional!  Cameron Brink went first.  She was escorted by her parents and her Godmother, Sonja Curry.  Her player introduction was by Brooke Demetre who talked about what a wonderful person Cam is. That theme was repeated over and over, particularly in comments about her leadership.  The joy that this team plays with is a tribute to the team captains starting with Cameron Brink.  Cam's mother told us about a moment in Cam's youth she was devastated because a pediatrician told her she was only going to be 5'10.  Cam shared with the crowd that she is still undecided about whether to come back for her COVID year or declare for the WNBA draft.  In the postgame press conference, she also spoke about her special friendship with Hannah Jump who had been her roommate during that Freshman COVID year.

 

                  For Hannah Jump there is no decision...there is no sixth year of eligibility.  Hannah was escorted by her parents and her aunt who came from England for the game and ceremony.  Her player introduction was by Talana Lepolo.  Her father spoke about her and entertained the crowd with stories about Hannah's competitiveness and determination.  

 

                  Next up for the CARD is a trip to play the Oregon schools.  It will be an unusual schedule, Oregon State on THURSDAY night at 7:00 pm and Oregon on SATURDAY at 2:00 pm.  Then it's off to Las Vegas for the final PAC-12 tournament, almost certainly as the number one seed.  That should be a special time -- tickets are still available. Stanford will also almost certainly be back at Maples for the first round of the NCAA tournament, but that isn't settled yet. 

                                        The Freshmen Celebrate their Championship on Senior Day